The Schaake Shuffle Technique to Combine Solar and Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Short-term wind power forecasting: probabilistic and space-time aspects
Forecasts of wind power production are increasingly being used in various management tasks. So far, such forecasts and related uncertainty information have usually been generated individually for a given site of interest (either a wind farm or a group of wind farms), without properly accounting for the spatio-temporal dependencies observed in the wind generation field. However, it is intuitivel...
متن کاملForecasting Solar Wind Speeds
By explicitly taking into account effects of Alfvén waves, I derive from a simple energetics argument a fundamental relation which predicts solar wind (SW) speeds in the vicinity of the earth from physical properties on the sun. Kojima et al. recently found from their observations that a ratio of surface magnetic field strength to an expansion factor of open magnetic flux tubes is a good indica...
متن کاملA General Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Offshore Wind Power Fluctuations
Accurate wind power forecasts highly contribute to the integration of wind power into power systems. The focus of the present study is on large-scale offshore wind farms and the complexity of generating accurate probabilistic forecasts of wind power fluctuations at time-scales of a few minutes. Such complexity is addressed from three perspectives: (i) the modeling of a nonlinear and non-station...
متن کاملA Data-Driven Methodology for Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting
With increasing wind penetration, wind power ramps (WPRs) are currently drawing great attention to balancing authorities, since these wind ramps largely affect power system operations. To help better manage and dispatch the wind power, this paper develops a data-driven probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting (p-WPRF) method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. A machine learning te...
متن کاملA Multi-model Combination Approach for Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting
Abstract—Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would be difficult to develop a universal forecasting model dominating over other alternative models. Therefore, a novel multi-model combination (MMC) ap...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Energies
سال: 2020
ISSN: 1996-1073
DOI: 10.3390/en13102503